About this Market

Recent geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East, including production shut-ins totaling over 10 million barrels per day in April 2026 and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, triggered sharp inventory draws and lifted WTI prices to an April peak of $138 per barrel. As of June 1, 2026, spot WTI trades near $90 per barrel after a roughly 15% monthly decline, with EIA projecting Brent averages around $106 per barrel for May and June amid continued 2Q inventory withdrawals of 8.5 million barrels per day. Longer-term forecasts from J.P. Morgan and others highlight softening fundamentals as non-OPEC supply growth outpaces demand, pointing to potential price moderation later in the year once flows resume. Key near-term catalysts include gradual Strait reopening, OPEC+ quota adjustments, and global demand data releases.