About this Market

Geopolitical tensions stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict and associated supply disruptions via the Strait of Hormuz have dominated WTI price dynamics since late February 2026, driving a sharp backwardation in futures curves and pushing benchmarks above $100 per barrel earlier in the year before moderating. As of late May, WTI trades near $89 per barrel amid an EIA-projected 8.5 million barrel-per-day inventory draw in Q2, elevated risk premiums, and softer global demand growth forecasts from the IEA and EIA. Traders monitor weekly EIA inventory reports, OPEC+ production adjustments, and diplomatic progress on de-escalation for near-term shifts, with the market-implied path reflecting uncertainty over whether disruptions will persist or ease by quarter-end.