About this Market

Recent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a high temperature in Tokyo on May 29 most likely between 29–30°C, driven by typical late-spring southerly flow and daytime heating under partly cloudy skies over the Kanto Plain. Late May climatology shows average highs near 25–27°C, but recent warming across eastern Japan—with multiple 30°C+ readings in mid-May—supports the slight upward shift in trader-implied odds. Variability stems primarily from uncertain cloud cover and any weak frontal passage that could limit peak insolation or trigger brief showers, keeping outcomes closely matched between the two leading bins while lower probabilities reflect the smaller chance of stronger cooling or clear-sky intensification.